Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
